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bcCOVID-19 group Lecture:

Real time modelling of the COVID-19 epidemic - perspectives from British Columbia

May 14, 2020 01:00 PM in Vancouver

Register at : https://www.pims.math.ca/scientific-event/200514-pbglrtmcepbc

The COVID-19 global pandemic has led to unprecedented public interest in mathematical modelling as a tool to understand the dynamics of disease spread and predict the impact of public health interventions.

In this pair of talks, we will describe how mathematical models are being used, with particular reference to the British Columbia epidemic.

In the first talk, Prof. Caroline Colijn (Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, Simon Fraser University) will outline the key features of the British Columbia data and focus on how modelling has allowed us to estimate the effectiveness of the provincial response.

In the second talk, Prof. Daniel Coombs (Dept. of Mathematics and Inst. of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia) will describe forward-looking modelling approaches that can provide some guidance as the province moves towards partial de-escalation of measures.

Each talk will be 30 mins in length and followed by a question and discussion period.

***** POSTPONED WITH NEW DATE TBA *****

Abstract: Phase I clinical trials explore the toxicity of new therapeutic agents. Phase II trials seek to establish some sign of efficacy. But practical applications vary creating a suite of statistical expressions for these trials’ goals and objectives. There is now a robust statistical literature on these topics. We review the development of adaptive dose selection procedures in early phase clinical trials. We will show how a suite of modern approaches developed out of classical stochastic approximation, random walks and optimal design theory. Critical effects that design choices have on analysis procedures are described. We focus on the distinguishing concepts and goals behind the various approaches.

Download poster (PDF).

Meet and greet with refreshments at 1:00 pm. Talk is at 1:30 pm

ABSTRACT: A large part of stochastic portfolio theory, as initiated by Robert Fernholz in the 1990s, is concerned with construction of practical equity portfolios that can beat the stock market index by active rule-based trading. The truly remarkable part of the theory is that it requires no probabilistic modeling on the future behavior of stock prices. There is a Monge-Kantorovich optimal transport problem that naturally arises in the construction of such portfolios. This transport problem is a multiplicative analog of the well-studied quadratic Kantorovich- Wasserstein transport with equally striking properties. We will see aspects of this transport problem from theoretical uses such as defining gradient flows in a non-metric setting to practical uses such as in determining the right frequency of trading. Interesting probability theory comes in as we consider entropic relaxation of this problem giving rise to multiplicative Schrodinger bridges.

PIMS - UVic Distinguished Lecture

Meet and Greet at 3:00, talk at 3:30

Understanding how environmental randomness affects evolution is of fundamental importance for biology. The presence of temporal or spatial randomness significantly affects the competition dynamics in populations and gives rise to some counterintuitive observations. In this talk, I will present some recent results on the evolutionary dynamics in systems where spatial and temporal randomness affects division and/or death parameters of cells. Of particular interest are the dynamics of non-selected mutants, whose rates come from the same distribution as those of wild type cells. Temporal and spatial types of randomness possess fundamentally different properties. Under temporal randomness, depending on the exact formulation of the update rules, minority mutants can be advantageous, disadvantageous, or neutral. In contrast to this, under spatial randomness, minority mutants are always advantageous. Applications to biomedical problems, including biofilms and cancer, are discussed.

Download poster (PDF).