Muhammad Qasim

Topic

Cruise Ship-Induced Traffic in Victoria, BC: An Integrated Statistical, Operational, and Environmental Analysis

Department of Civil Engineering

Date & location

• Wednesday, October 29, 2025

• 10:00 A.M.

• Virtual Defence

Reviewers

Supervisory Committee

• Dr. Laura Minet, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria (Supervisor)

• Dr. Zuomin Dong, Department of Mechanical Engineering, UVic (Member) 

External Examiner

• Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi, Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia Okanagan 

Chair of Oral Examination

• Dr. John Volpe, School of Environmental Studies, UVic 

Abstract

On-road transportation is a major contributor to air pollution and congestion in urban areas, particularly in cities where tourism intensifies seasonal local traffic demand. Cruise tourism exemplifies this challenge, as large passenger vessels generate short-term surges of vehicles that can overwhelm local infrastructure and degrade environmental quality. Addressing these issues requires integrated approaches that capture both the operational and environmental consequences of tourism-induced traffic strain. This thesis develops such an approach, focusing on the James Bay neighborhood of Victoria, British Columbia, where Ogden Point terminal serves as one of Canada’s busiest cruise ports. The thesis is structured around two complementary analyses. Chapter 2 investigates the statistical relationship between cruise ship arrivals and local traffic patterns. Drawing on an extensive dataset collected during the 2023 cruise season, the analysis characterizes fluctuations in traffic volumes, modal composition, speeding violations, and temporal patterns under varying levels of cruise ship activity. Regression models are employed to isolate the effects of ship arrivals, revealing significant increases in touristic buses, taxis, and heavy trucks, as well as modal shifts that reshape traffic circulation patterns and influence traffic safety outcomes. 

Chapter 3 extends the analysis to environmental and operational impacts using an integrated modeling framework. A calibrated traffic assignment model in PTV VISUM and intersection capacity analysis in PTV Vistro are combined with emissions estimation through the MOVES simulation, using detailed fleet composition data from the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia. Results demonstrate that cruise ship-induced traffic not only degrades level of service in the adjacent local infrastructure but also elevates emissions of greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and volatile organic compounds. These effects are concentrated during short but intense peak periods, magnifying local exposure to congestion, speeding violations and pollution. By combining the findings of both chapters, Chapter 4 highlights the collective impact of cruise ship tourism on mobility and air quality. The results underscore the need for targeted interventions such as adaptive signal timing, traffic calming measures, curb and staging management, and demand-smoothing strategies to mitigate localized congestion and reduce pollutant emissions. The methodological framework developed here also provides a transferable template for evaluating tourism-driven traffic impacts in other port cities worldwide.