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Small temperature rise can cause large scale migration

May 02, 2023

Somali families

A 1°C temperature increase can cause a tenfold increase in displaced people, according to new research led by a collaborative team from the University of Victoria and the University of Oxford, which studied the effects of conflict, weather, and drought, on forced displacement in Somalia.

Read Oxford news release.

Dr Felix Pretis, a study author from the University of Victoria, says, ‘Crucially, we find little effect of incoming displaced people on conflict itself…This finding is novel, and dispels the common myth that displacement might further fuel conflicts.’

The international team, based at Oxford’s Climate Econometrics, the University of Victoria, and Princeton University, analysed highly-detailed localised data from the 18 separate regions of Somalia, exploring the reasons over two million people were forced to flee over a two year period.

The study can be seen here