The end of China's one-party state: a predictable event?

September 27, 2013 from 7 p.m - 8:30 p.m.
Hickman Room 105
University of Victoria, Victoria, BC

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has, so far, successfully resisted the worldwide trend of democratization.  Since its near-death experience in the Tiananmen crisis in 1989, the CCP has adopted a comprehensive strategy of survival that uses a mix of performance-based legitimacy, repression, and co-optation. The effectiveness of this strategy has led many to believe that the CCP will be able to maintain its political monopoly for the foreseeable future.  However, historical experience around the world, insights from decades of social science research, and emerging trends inside China suggest that a transition to some form of democracy in China in the coming 10-15 years is a high-probability event.  This lecture, part of CAPI's annual Albert Hung Chao Hong series, analyzed the drivers of this transition, explored possible pathways to democracy, and analyzed some of the critical consequences of this revolutionary change.

Dr. Minxin Pei currently serves as the Director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College. In 2008, he was listed as one of the top 100 public intellectuals by Prospect magazine. This lecture was the keynote for the workshop, Perspectives on China's Transition. The lecture was free and open to the public.