Aaron Hoyle

Topic

Closing the Implementation Gap: Integrating Energy Systems Modelling and Studies of Public Support to Assess Climate Policy Instruments in Canada

School of Public Administration

Date & location

• Thursday, October 29, 2026

• 9:00 A.M.

• Clearihue Building

• Room B007

Reviewers

Supervisory Committee

• Dr. Katya Rhodes, School of Public Administration, University of Victoria (Supervisor)

• Dr. Tamara Krawchenko, School of Public Administration, UVic (Member)

• Dr. Madeleine McPherson, Department of Civil Engineering, UVic (Outside Member) 

External Examiner

• Dr. Andrew Sudmant, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University 

Chair of Oral Examination

• Dr. Todd Milford, Department of Curriculum and Instruction, UVic 

Abstract

Climate policy must be both effective at reducing emissions and politically feasible, yet the assessment of these criteria has developed largely in parallel. Energy-economy models typically estimate what instruments can deliver in terms of emissions reductions but treat political constraints as out of scope, while policy support research interrogates what publics will accept without linking that to emissions outcomes.

This dissertation brings the two together, using Canada as a case study, to explore policy instrument design choices that can improve public support, thereby making emissions reductions more likely. The dissertation consists of four distinct journal article style research papers. The first paper soft-links the CIMS energy-economy model to the COPPER electricity system planning model to ask what electrifying British Columbia’s economy would require. Adding proposed climate policies alongside electrified liquefied natural gas and mining projects roughly triples required generating capacity, an unprecedented challenge for the province’s power sector. The second and third papers use national surveys to explain policy support. Across six policy instruments (n = 2,359), perceived distributive fairness predicts support more strongly than perceived effectiveness, and opposition to a zero-emission vehicle mandate rivals that of a consumer carbon tax. In a conjoint experiment on policy packages (n = 1,201), endorsement by political parties influences support roughly twice as much as the most influential policy instrument. The fourth paper sets modelled abatement for ten instruments beside survey-measured support (n = 788), finding that industrial and supply-side measures combine high abatement with modest opposition, while household-facing instruments attract high opposition largely irrespective of what they deliver.

Taken together, these studies show that, in Canada, public opposition is unlikely to be the binding constraint on strengthening industrial and supply-side measures, a promising approach with respect to emissions abatement. Next, while policy design appears to influence support across instruments through factors such as perceived fairness and effectiveness, how people feel about who is proposing climate action has a much stronger influence. This suggests that policy design can determine which instruments are least exposed when partisan conflict arrives but cannot overcome partisan polarization of climate change as an issue.