Colloquium: Mar 2nd 18

Speaker: Conor Mayo-Wilson, University of Washington

Title: Eliciting Group Beliefs

Friday, March 2nd at 2:30pm CLE A303


How are the beliefs of groups (e.g., a scientific panel) related to beliefs of their members?  Research in judgment aggregation proposes a particular methodology for attacking this question:  propose intuitive axiomatic constraints on the relationship between group and individual belief and investigate which sets of axioms are jointly satisfiable.  I argue this is the wrong way to think about group beliefs if one’s aims are to explain and predict group behavior, as social scientists and policy-makers are typically interested in doing.