'Predict the Goose' forecasting competition and winners

Congratulations to UVic economics students Bryce Edwards & Mathieu Weary as well as Dr. Martin Farnham on winning the first `Predict the Goose’ competition!

The competition invited students and faculty to forecast the number of daily cyclists on the Victoria Galloping Goose trail more than two weeks into the future and was organised as part of the UVic’s graduate time series econometrics course taught by Dr Felix Pretis.

The winning entries used methods based on historical averages combined with expert judgment, exponential smoothing, as well as dynamic models taking weather forecasts into account. The winning entries accurately predicted the thousands of cyclists using the trail each day, with an average forecast error of only 15%.

Winners of the competition (Dr. Martin Farnham and Mathieu Weary) stand alongside Dr. Felix Pretis in front of a forecasting graph
UVic Economics student Mathieu Weary (right) and faculty Dr. Martin Farnham (left) winning the ‘Predict the Goose’ Forecasting competition organised by Dr. Felix Pretis (middle). The undergraduate prize (and second overall) was won by UVic economics student Bryce Edwards.
A graph shows the three most accurte forecasts
Cyclists on the Galloping Goose shown with the three most accurate forecasts.